CORRELATIONS OF THE MEAN TIME AND MEAN MAGNITUDE OF ACCELERATING PRESHOCKS WITH THE ORIGIN TIME AND MAGNITUDE OF MAINSHOCK
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Scordilis, E. M.
Forty-five preshock sequences preceding corresponding strong (M≥6.4) mainshocks which occurred recently (since 1980) in a variety of seismotectonic regimes (W. Mediterranean, Aegean, Anatolia, California, Japan, Central Asia, South America) have been examined to identify new predictive properties. It has been observed that the mean origin time, , and the mean magnitude, of the accelerating preshocks of each sequence are correlated with the origin time, tc, and the magnitude, M, of the mainshock, respectively. The following relations have been derived: where sa (in Joule ½ /yr.104 Km2 ) is the Benioff strain rate in each preshock (critical) region and σ is the corresponding standard deviation. The possibility for using these relations as constraints in attempts for intermediate term earthquake prediction is discussed.
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