Prediction of air pollution episodes: Extreme value theory applied in Athens
(EN)
Lekkas, T
(EN)
Chaloulakou, A
(EN)
Assimacopoulos, D
(EN)
Abatzoglou, G
(EN)
The asymptotic theory of extreme values is applied and the air pollution in Athens Basin, Greece is analysed. The time series of air pollutant concentrations refer to years 1984-92 and have been recorded by the Environmental Protection Agency of Greece in four different monitoring stations. Hourly values of concentration are processed for the pollutants SO2, NO2 and CO. The behaviour of the extreme values is studied and their relation to air quality standards is examined. The frequency of exceedances and violations of air quality standards is predicted and compared with the observed number of episodes. Theoretical results are in excellent agreement with real data. The analysis shows that the problem of photochemical air pollution at Patission station (centre of Athens) and Piraeus (port) is serious and will continue to be in the coming years if proper measures are not taken.
(EN)
