Measuring Tanker Market Future Risk with the use of FORESIM (EN)

Mavris, Aristidis

Zacharioudakis, Panayotis

Lyridis, Dimitrios

Pappas, Athanassios

Manos, Nikolaos

Future market risk has always been a critical question in decision support processes. FORESIM is a simulation technique that models shipping markets (developed recently). In this paper we present the application of this technique in order to obtain useful information regarding future values of the tanker market risk. This is the first attempt to express future tanker market risk in relation to current market fundamentals. We follow a system’s analysis seeking for internal and external parameters affecting risk. Therefore we apply dynamic features in risk measurement taking into account all Tanker market characteristics and potential excitations from non-systemic parameters as well as their contribution to freight level formulation and fluctuation. In this way we are able to measure the behavior of future market risk as long as twelve months ahead with very encouraging results. The output information is therefore useful in all aspects of risk analysis and decision making in shipping markets. JEL Classification: C6, C450, G17 (EN)

info:eu-repo/semantics/article

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Tanker Market, Freight Rates, Forecasting, Modeling, Simulation, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) (EN)

Πανεπιστήμιο Πειραιώς

Σπουδαί - Journal of Economics and Business

Scientific Papers

Σπουδαί - Journal of Economics and Business

Αγγλική γλώσσα

2017-03-21

https://spoudai.unipi.gr/index.php/spoudai/article/view/2571

University of Piraeus (EN)

1105-8919

2241-424X

SPOUDAI - Journal of Economics and Business; Vol 67, No 1 (2017); 38-53 (EN)

Copyright (c) 2017 SPOUDAI - Journal of Economics and Business (EN)