High-speed rail and air transport competition: the case of Athens – Thessaloniki
(EL)
Τσίτσου, Γεωργία
aegean
The research dissertation analyses the potential of the high speed train to compete with the airline market. The context proposed is hypothetical, given that the high speed train alternative is not yet available on the route subject to research. In order to model passenger preferences relative to the characteristics of the alternatives, experimental design techniques are applied, which allow for the design of the market that will be evaluated by current airline passengers. Based upon the information collected, modal choices are analysed, estimating a logit model with both alternatives. Demand modelling allows us to predict the substitutability level of the high speed train in comparison with the plane for the city pair Athens – Thessaloniki and in reverse, for different types of traveler. The results obtained confirm that the high speed train will have an important impact on the airline market. The simulation of different policies related to service variables stresses the fact that this impact will mainly depend on the relation gender – price, age – time, occupancy – accuracy/ reliability and reasons for travelling – accuracy/ reliability. In contrast, in the city pair Thessaloniki – Athens, there is statistically significant correlation between gender and fewer stops or better connections and reason for travelling and price. Suggestions that were provided at the final part of the dissertation concentrate on gaining a better overview of passengers’ preference for each mode of transport and needs by conducting a respective research in train platforms. The list of recommendations covers all aspects that caused passengers’ dissatisfaction on facility services.
