The effect of geopolitical risk on the financial markets

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The effect of geopolitical risk on the financial markets (EN)

Ιορδανίδου, Δέσποινα (EL)
Iordanidou, Despoina (EN)

Παναγιωτίδης, Θεόδωρος (EL)
Panagiotidis, Theodore (EN)

Electronic Thesis or Dissertation (EN)
Text (EN)

2025-02-25T06:39:27Z
2025


Διπλωματική εργασία--Πανεπιστήμιο Μακεδονίας, Θεσσαλονίκη, 2025. (EL)
The research examines the impact of geopolitical risk on stock market returns, focusing on the conflict between Israel and Lebanon in October 2024. The event study methodology is used, analyzing nine stock market indices from the Middle East, Turkey, and North Africa. The analysis centers on the short and medium-term horizon, evaluating abnormal returns, as well as cumulative abnormal returns, and, by extension, assessing the sensitivity and resilience of markets to external shocks. The findings support that the markets of Turkey, Israel, and Morocco experienced significant negative abnormal returns on the day the conflict began, indicating investor's risk aversion. The robustness of these findings is then tested using non-parametric methods, confirming a short-term impact on returns after the event. Furthermore, the cross-sectional regressions conducted reveal that in the first days after the event, a country's economic strength (GDP) is positively related to its market's resilience to geopolitical risks. Furthermore, countries with a trade surplus are negatively affected by geopolitical risk. Additionally, countries that have developed diplomatic relations with Israel exhibited negative cumulative abnormal returns both after the event and in the short term. This thesis provides information on the effects of geopolitical risks on markets specifically in the context of armed conflicts. (EN)
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Event study methodology (EN)
Abnormal returns and financial markets (EN)
MENAT stock index returns (EN)
Geopolitical events (EN)

Πανεπιστήμιο Μακεδονίας (EL)

Πρόγραμμα Μεταπτυχιακών Σπουδών Εφαρμοσμένα Οικονομικά (EL)

CC0 1.0 Παγκόσμια (EL)
http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/




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