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Simple scoring for acute necrotizing pancreatitis: mortality in acute necrotizing pancreatitis during admission (MANP-A)

Το τεκμήριο παρέχεται από τον φορέα :
Ελληνική Γαστροεντερολογική Εταιρία   

Αποθετήριο :
Annals of Gastroenterology   

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Simple scoring for acute necrotizing pancreatitis: mortality in acute necrotizing pancreatitis during admission (MANP-A) (EN)
Ali, Hassam
Tillmann, Hans
Bolick, Nicole Leigh
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
2022-08-30
Background Acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) can result in a significant healthcare burden. The present study aimed to develop a new scoring system to accurately and promptly identify patients with a high likelihood of mortality to determine the need for aggressive measures. Methods We retrospectively analyzed patients diagnosed with ANP using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS). The mortality in ANP during admission (MANP-A) scoring system was derived using multivariate Cox regression analysis and validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in a validation cohort. Results A total of 22,980 hospitalizations were identified in the derivation cohort. There was a predominance of males (65%) and white race (73%). Five variables showed significant association with mortality and were selected for developing the MANP-A scoring system: age ≥60 years; acute renal failure/kidney injury; sepsis with shock; vasopressor use; and disseminated intravascular coagulation. The MANP-A score has a maximum of 5 points and the cutoff for predicting mortality was set at 2 points. The area under the curve (AUC) using the ROC curve of the derivation cohort was 0.9195, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8838-0.9551 (P<0.001) for 7- and 0.8954, 95%CI 0.8723-0.9185 (P<0.001) for 30-day periods. The AUC of the Validation Cohort was 0.9204, 95%CI 0.8937-0.9469 (P<0.001) for 7- and 0.9059, 95%CI 0.8893-0.9223 (P<0.001) for 30-day periods. Conclusion We propose a simple and objective score for predicting ANP inpatient mortality at 7- and 30-day intervals with high validity. Keywords Acute necrotizing pancreatitis, prognostic scoring system, national inpatient sample, mortality predictors Ann Gastroenterol 2022; 35 (5): 551-556 (EN)
Αγγλική γλώσσα
Hellenic Society of Gastroenterology (EN)
1792-7463
1108-7471
Annals of Gastroenterology; Volume 35, No 5 (2022); 551 (EN)
Copyright (c) 2022 Annals of Gastroenterology (EN)
Ελληνική Γαστροεντερολογική Εταιρία
Annals of Gastroenterology
Original Articles



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