The aim of this work is to create an investment decision-making tool based on second- hand and newbuilding prices for the Cape shipping sector. Maritime investors are often confronted with the dilemma of investing either in the second-hand or the newbuilding market. Using a dataset between January 2004 and June 2017 for the Cape sector, an error correction model has been created to investigate the impact factors such as time-charter rate, shipbuilding costs and market risk have on such a decision. Moreover, the current analysis brings about additional insights and acknowledges the existence of asset play strategies in shipping. Results indicate that the index is directly related to the cyclicality of the shipping industry with iron ore prices, freight rates with cost of newbuilding having the highest impact.
University of the Aegena
