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On the credibility of climate predictions

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National Technical University of Athens   

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On the credibility of climate predictions (EN)
Mamassis, N (EN)
Efstratiadis, A (EN)
Christofides, A (EN)
Koutsoyiannis, D (EN)
journalArticle (EN)
2014-03-01T01:28:55Z
2008 (EN)
Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported. Copyright © 2008 IAHS Press. (EN)
Water Resources (EN)
Water (EN)
General circulation models (EN)
general circulation model (EN)
Climate modelling (EN)
Local modeling (EN)
Falsifiability (EN)
Earth sciences (EN)
Climate models (EN)
Hurst-Kolmogorov climate (EN)
climate prediction (EN)
air temperature (EN)
Forecasting (EN)
Spatial scaling (EN)
Climate change (EN)
spatial analysis (EN)
Climate predictions (EN)
precipitation (climatology) (EN)
climate modeling (EN)
Future climate (EN)
climate change (EN)
Hydrological Sciences Journal (EN)
English
IAHS PRESS, INST HYDROLOGY (EN)
National Technical University of Athens
Digital Library of National Technical University of Athens | Dspace@NTUA
Κεντρική Βιβλιοθήκη Ε.Μ.Π.
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