SYSTEMS THEORY AND ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NON PHARMACEUTICAL
POLICIES FOR THE MITIGATION OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Tsiatsios, Georgios Alkis and
Lefcaditis, Konstantinos and
We utilize systems theory in the study of the implementation of non
pharmaceutical strategies for the mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic.
We present two models. The first one is a model of predictive control
with receding horizon and discontinuous actions of unknown costs for the
implementation of adaptive triggering policies during the disease. This
model is based on a periodic assessment of the peak of the pandemic
(and, thus, of the health care demand) utilizing the latest data about
the transmission and recovery rate of the disease. Consequently, the
model seems to be suitable for discontinuous, non-mechanical (i.e.
human) actions with unknown effectiveness, like those applied in the
case of COVID-19. Secondly, we consider a feedback control problem in
order to contain the pandemic at the capacity of the NHS (National
Health System). As input parameter we consider the value p that reflects
the intensity-effectiveness of the measures applied and as output the
predicted maximum of infected people to be treated by NHS. The feedback
control regulates p so that the number of infected people is manageable.
Based on this approach, we address the following questions: (a) the
limits of improvement of this approach; (b) the effectiveness of this
approach; (c) the time horizon and timing of the application.